000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040246 TCDEP4 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008 GOES-10 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MARIE HAD A WELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL 12 NM WIDE EYE AROUND 2100 UTC...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WAS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO YIELD A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T4.5 AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS CIRCULAR AND SQUEEZED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T4.0...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 65 KT EVEN THOUGH MARIE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER FOR A SHORT TIME. MARIE HAS HIT THE BRICK WALL OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN IT AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RECENT SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE WEST WILL COMMENCE AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE MARIE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER TRADES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...AT THE TIME WHEN MARIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE NORTH BUT THEN RE-CONVENES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 72-120 HOURS. WITH MARIE HAVING MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH SELF-INDUCED COLD UPWELLING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY MARGINAL AT 26C...AND THE 20C ISOTHERM...A PROXY FOR THE THERMOCLINE...IS ONLY ABOUT 50 METERS DEEP AT MARIE'S LOCATION. THESE COLD UPWELLED WATERS MAY PROHIBIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS MARIE AS A 65-KT HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN LINE WITH VIRTUALLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THE NHC FORECAST WEAKENS MARIE TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 4 AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE MARIE BEFORE DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.9N 122.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 123.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.6N 124.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 125.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART