000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032033
TCDEP4
HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008
 
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T4.0...65 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE. 
GENERALLY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST NEAR MARIE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE SSTS AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
CHANGE.  HIGH RESOLUTION SST MAPS SUGGEST THAT MARIE IS OVER A WARM
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

MARIE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE NEW FORECAST STILL SHOWING A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OF MARIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN CAUSE A
FASTER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE ECMWF
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER SLOWING A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. IN GENERAL THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST WEST
OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.7N 122.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.9N 122.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N 123.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE