000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

MARIE IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND IN FACT...AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM. BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60
KNOTS. THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS MARGINAL. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME TODAY AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE OCEAN
ALONG MARIE'S PATH WILL BE COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
THEN BEGIN.

MARIE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE BUT
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 2 OR 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 17.7N 122.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.8N 122.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 123.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N 124.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA