000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008 MARIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 0329Z SHOWED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A MID-LEVEL EYE...WITH EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS WERE GETTING CLOSER TOGETHER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND MARIE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. MARIE IS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE BREAK. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THESE TROUGHS WILL NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT MARIE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MARIE AFTER 36-48 HR. BASED ON THE PATTERN AND TRENDS...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...WITH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD STEER MARIE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. SOME SPREAD IS PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE GFS...HWRF... BAMD...AND BAMM MODELS CALLING FOR A FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MARIE IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION AND A FORECAST TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS SUGGEST THAT THE SSTS WILL BE SLOW TO COOL UNDER THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 12 HR AND A GRADUAL DECAY AFTER 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.8N 121.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.7N 122.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.8N 123.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 123.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 124.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN