000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030236
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008
 
THE MOTION OF LOW CLOUD LINES IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWED HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIE MAY STILL BE
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
BE CERTAIN OF THIS...AND THE SYNOPTIC POSITION IS PLACED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE PRONOUNCED TURNING BASED ON CONTINUITY. 
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS INDEED NOW COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
TURNING...MARIE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT.
 
MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/6. A
MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CAUSE A
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  BY DAY 3...THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY
MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OF MARIE...SPURRING A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE STORM THROUGH DAY 5.  ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MARIE...THE CYCLONE MAY
BE GAINING A LITTLE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL...DO NOT INTENSIFY
MARIE ANY HIGHER THAN 50 KT. MARIE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE WARM
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND
COULD POTENTIALLY CROSS OVER SEVERAL ALTERNATING WARM AND COLD
TONGUES ALONG THAT GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN
ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT LOCATED WEST OF 120W.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AT 50 KT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING
AFTER 48 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 17.6N 121.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 122.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.6N 122.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 17.9N 124.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.1N 126.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N 128.4W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.1N 131.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART