000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008
 
A MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 1430Z INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE
REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT 18Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MARIE REACHES SUB-26C WATERS. 
SINCE THE WATERS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY COOL...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE LOWER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...ALTHOUGH THIS ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT APPARENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STEERING
FLOW.  AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST
LIFTS OUT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND
TURN IT WESTWARD.  THE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE SLOWER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
NOGAPS...KEEP MARIE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY STALL WHEN A
SECOND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IN ABOUT 5
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...GFDL AND
HWRF. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 17.8N 117.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 118.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.7N 119.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N 120.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 18.9N 121.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN