000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011450
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S ORGANIZATION...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 0524Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AT LEAST 35 KT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
RESIDES. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0 FROM BOTH
AGENCIES WHICH SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45
KT. EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS ANALYSIS. CONSEQUENTLY...MARIE
SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS IN
AROUND 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
THE LGEM MODELS.
 
MARIE IS MOVING AT 310/8 AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL NOT
INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN AS INDICATED BY THE NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS THE FORMER SCENARIO. 
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 17.1N 116.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.8N 117.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 118.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.4N 120.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 121.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN