000
WTPZ44 KNHC 122029
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008
 
A 1436 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HERNAN HAD A SMALL AREA OF
40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THEN...DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HERNAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL OCEAN WATERS. HERNAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION.

HERNAN IS GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 260/8. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD
TURN FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE HERNAN BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT
LOW. DISSIPATION AS A CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED BY DAY 4...A LITTLE
LATER THAN INDICATED BY SHIPS AND SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 18.4N 134.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.2N 135.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N 136.6W    25 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.2N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 139.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN