000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090845
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008
 
HERNAN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NOW A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  HAVING SAID
THAT...HERNAN SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE NEARS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS HERNAN
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.  HERNAN COULD BE
NEARING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
HERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/09.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
NORTH OF HERNAN.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
THE SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 15.5N 122.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N 123.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 125.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.3N 128.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 132.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME