000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070246 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2008 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO EAST- NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HERNAN BECOMES THE EIGHTH NAMED STORM TO FORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS YEAR. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THIS RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS HERNAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE HERNAN TO SLOW DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HERNAN'S HEADING...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS BEFORE. AS A RESULT...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING HERNAN WILL RELAX IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HERNAN REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH CALLS FOR HERNAN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 13.8N 112.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 114.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 15.2N 116.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 15.8N 118.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 16.4N 119.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 17.6N 123.2W 55 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN