000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022039
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DOUGLAS HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS TOPS HAVE WARMED AND A LONE BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SEVERAL
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES TODAY REVEAL THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT BROAD AND SPRAWLING.  IN THE OUTER RAINBAND THAT CAME
ASHORE NEAR MANZANILLO...A COUPLE REPORTS OF WINDS OF 30-35 KT WERE
RECEIVED... ONE FROM THE OBSERVATION SITE AT MANZANILLO AND ONE
FROM A SHIP LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DOUGLAS HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREE C.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY.  THEREAFTER... DOUGLAS SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH DOUGLAS FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH NOW
KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE NEW NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 18.1N 108.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N 109.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.6N 112.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 21.2N 113.8W    25 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.2N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN