000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021455
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008
 
A 1252 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS A
LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAND TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KT. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REPORTED 27 KT AT 1200 UTC. ASSUMING THAT THE WINDS ARE
STRONGER IN THE CONVECTION...THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT UPGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. UNFORTUNATELY...QUIKSCAT HAS
MISSED THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/7.  DOUGLAS IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFDL MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA.  THIS MODEL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THIS PORTION OF THE
BASIN AND CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER GREATER THAN 26 DEGREE SSTS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STRENGTHENING GRADUAL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE AND INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KT IN 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DOUGLAS WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND THE FORECAST SHOWS
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTERESTS IN
SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 17.8N 107.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N 108.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.1N 108.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 19.6N 109.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.1N 110.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN