000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012042
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A SHRINKING AND WEAKENING AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.  IF JULIETTE DOES NOT 
GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IT COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JULIETTE HAS NOT DECELERATED IN ITS
FORWARD MOTION YET...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THIS CONTINUED
PACE. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.7N 115.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.7N 115.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 24.7N 116.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 25.1N 116.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI