000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011435
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007
 
AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE
CENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
RATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.  A
LATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS.
ASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8.  THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND
TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA.
 
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.7N 115.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.7N 115.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.6N 116.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN