000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010245
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT PERSISTS AND THE MOST RECENT BURST EXHIBITS CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED AND HARD
TO PRECISELY LOCATE...MAKING SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AND DISPARATE...WITH 00Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS
IMMINENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY
FASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ROUGHLY
320/9...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST.  AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD
DECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST TAKES JULIETTE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW ON A PATH THAT BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO
A HALT IN A FEW DAYS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 20.2N 114.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.6N 115.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.9N 116.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.8N 116.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB