000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302104
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED
IN THE DENSE OVERCAST...WITH SOME HINTS OF INNER BANDING FEATURES. 
JULIETTE WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY...NEAR 50 KT. 
HOWEVER ON RECENT IMAGES THE CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN TO BE WARMING...SO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KT.  THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY
BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY AND IS HEADED FOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR
SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN THE CYCLONE.  IN
FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL RUNS WEAKEN JULIETTE MORE RAPIDLY
THAN INDICATED HERE.

BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE TO
THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER THE MOTION IS STILL
ESTIMATED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330/11.  JULIETTE IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS THE STORM LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION
AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CIRCULATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD
BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THIS FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
TO BE VERY WEAK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE
MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW
BAM FORECAST BUT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 19.7N 113.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.2N 114.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 115.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 115.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.2N 116.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH