000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007 CENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATES WEIGH HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY. SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT WELL KNOWN...THIS ALSO LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY. IF THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...THEN THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45 KT AS GIVEN BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. HOWEVER IF THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...JULIETTE IS A WEAKER STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE SHIPS LGEM GUIDANCE. WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR. WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY WITHIN 72 HOURS OR SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 335/10. JULIETTE CONTINUES TO PROCEED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEP THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE STATIONARY IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NOT FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 113.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.9N 113.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 21.7N 114.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 115.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH