000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300828 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007 AN AMSU PASS AT 0520Z HELPED ESTABLISH THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF JULIET...WHICH ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND 329/9...RESPECTIVELY. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS PREVENTED IT FROM BECOMING APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT...A QUIKSCAT EDGE PASS AT 02Z DID NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JULIET IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. AS LONG AS JULIET MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION...IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH. AT THAT TIME...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION DRAMATICALLY IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU FILLED NORTHERLIES WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STILL ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OF SO...AND A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ARE LESS THAN TWO DAYS AWAY...AT WHICH TIME THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATER AND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 17.6N 112.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 113.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 114.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.4N 114.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN