000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007 CONVECTIVE BANDING IS IMPROVING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DEEMED A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS STEERING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE DEPRESSION ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AS THE SHALLOWER CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... ONLY THE UKMET IS COUNTER TO THIS SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THIS MODEL AND MAKES A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING THE DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS TO INTENSITY BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE. AMAZINGLY...THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 40 KT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND THE HWRF MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT LEAST A LITTLE IN THE AVAILABLE WINDOW...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SO...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CALL FOR QUICKER DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.3N 111.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.9N 113.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 18.9N 115.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.8W 40 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA