000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110850 TCDEP4 HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007 FLOSSIE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A 15 N MI-WIDE CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND -75C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5/102 KT...AND 6-HR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 102 KT AS WELL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT...AND FLOSSIE IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SSTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C. WITH THAT SAID...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE THAN FORECAST...HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAK FLOSSIE AROUND 100 KT. AFTER TWO OR SO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THE IMPACT OF THE INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST VARIES FROM EACH OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE WHICH HAVE A MORE ACCURATE INITIALIZATION. FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD...270/12...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS TAKE A STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND HWRF GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A RESULT OF A MORE WEAKENED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE FSSE MODEL. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 12.6N 139.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 12.9N 141.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 13.8N 145.6W 95 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 148.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 156.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI