000
WTPZ44 KNHC 101438
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT
IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED GOES IMAGERY...AND IN A
RECENT TRMM OVERPASS.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE... BUT
THE WESTERN PORTION IS RESTRICTED A BIT.  DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...ON THE LOWER END OF THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES SINCE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT
SINCE 12Z.
 
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FLOSSIE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 27 CELSIUS.  SSTS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DECLINE THEREAFTER...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST BEYOND 36-48 HOURS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY INDICATED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL...AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY TREND...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...ICON...SUPER-ENSEMBLE...AND THE LGE MODELS.
 
FLOSSIE IS MOVING AT 275/12...WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...SOUTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE GFDL...
HOWEVER...INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 24
HOURS...WHICH PLACES THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND ON DAY 5.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...LESS EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON IT FOR NOW...BECAUSE A RIGHT OF
TRACK BIAS HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN PREVIOUS GFDL FORECASTS FOR
FLOSSIE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AFTER THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 12.7N 136.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 12.8N 137.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 13.1N 140.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 13.5N 142.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 13.9N 144.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 149.7W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 159.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB