000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR
IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
FLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY. BEYOND
3 DAYS...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS RESULTING
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP FLOSSY MOVING ON A GENERAL STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL
MODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 13.2N 129.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 13.3N 131.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.3N 133.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 14.5N 146.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 150.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA