000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT.  BASED ON THIS
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.  FLOSSIE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  FOR
NOW...SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND
28C.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STABLE AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRESENCE
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION.  INDEED THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS ARE DIVERGENT
WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 48 KT TO 75 KT.  DESPITE THE
SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...ALL BUT THE HWRF HAVE TRENDED UPWARD. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. 

FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12. THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS APPROACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 13.4N 128.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 13.2N 130.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.2N 132.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 13.2N 134.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 13.3N 136.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 13.9N 140.7W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 149.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME