000
WTPZ44 KNHC 082031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. 
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT TWO...ALBEIT RAGGED...HOOKING BANDS.  BASED
ON AN ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
LGEM...AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD AND CURRENT MOTION IS
ABOUT 270/10.  NINE-E IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST IN 4-5
DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE HWRF MODEL
AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.6N 130.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 13.5N 135.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH