000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT IS
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
STILL...IT IS ENOUGH TO HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION
SEEMS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WORKING AGAINST IT INCLUDING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR SO.
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE
INITIAL MOTION...300/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.  AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 18.3N 120.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 122.9W    25 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME