000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100229
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REALLY FIZZLED TONIGHT NEAR THE ILL-DEFINED
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
NOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 30 KT.  FOR THE SHORT-TERM...PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD BET
BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE DIURNAL CYCLE.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A
RESULT OF THE DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER.
 
AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 2100 UTC SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO A NORTHWARD RELOCATION WAS MADE
IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE LONG-TERM MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 7 KT.  A GRADUAL SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOMEWHAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION...BUT OTHERWISE IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE LAST FORECAST.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 17.7N 119.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 18.2N 120.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 18.8N 121.8W    25 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE