000
WTPZ43 KNHC 180234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from
earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest
quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate
is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the
Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a
brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow
westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net
steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the
foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC
track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is
based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models,
both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h.

Octave is located in an environment that could support slight
additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance,
though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked.
Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are
forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in
about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for
the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z  9.8N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky