000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is
no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead,
increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to
the southwestern edge of the deep convection.  Intensity estimates
are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which
agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  The storm is expected to turn
to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By
Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually
south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level
trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one,
except adjusted southward on days 2-3.

The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to
persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and
a dry mid-level environment.  Guidance tonight has accelerated the
transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now
showing post-tropical status by 48 hours.  The new forecast is
lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and
could be too slow in showing the storm's demise.  Still, Kiko has
been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in
longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake