000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the
initial presence of an eye developing.  Since that time, the
gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern
semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like
feature.  This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over
the cyclone could be beginning.  The initial intensity remains at 50
kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective
and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  There is no change to the
forecast track philosophy.  Kiko is expected to turn to the
northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west.  By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn
back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the
low-level trade winds.  Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is
expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night.

Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over
the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional
strengthening.  The southerly shear is expected to increase much
more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable
marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend
to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical
depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly
thereafter.  Other than removing the near term intensification, the
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto