000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and
satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial
intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and
subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt.

Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to
short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how
long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical
storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located
in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However,
the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once
again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still
anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show
Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it
could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity
forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows
the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period.

Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good
agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge
weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow.
The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and
closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky