000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass
show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep
convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface
center.  These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB
intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical
storm status of 35 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it
continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind
environment.  By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear
and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is
forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with
dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8
kt, just south of due west.  Kiko is expected to turn westward to
west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a
high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the
upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone.  At the 72
hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow
remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest
within the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts