000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the
cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds
with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak
estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the
opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but
the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as
it crosses the end of our domain.

Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by
the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue
swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high
pulses during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila