000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211453
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and
mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some
southwesterly shear.  The center is located beneath the cold cloud
tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass.
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and
SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little
generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during
the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and
in generally low shear conditions.  After that time, increasing
southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are
likely to cause gradual weakening.  The updated NHC wind speed
forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow
mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today,
which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later
today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days,
but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko
is likely to turn back northwestward early next week.  The track
guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown