000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210900
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance
continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over
marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable
environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for
the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the
GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most
recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko
turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like
motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during
the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus
aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart