000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced
to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications
were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate
from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z
showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously
estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the
initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko
moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north
fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC
track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the
previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the
speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model
guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially
late in the forecast period.

All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and
dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest
intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan