000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200833
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The
low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a
persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is
due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated
by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the
latest SATCON estimate.

Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in
that general direction through today.  A turn to the west and then
west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds
to the northwest of the cyclone.  After that time, the models
diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others
westward.  The differences in the models appear to be at least
partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next
week.  The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus
aids.  Although the details of the track forecast are still
uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly
over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several
more days.

Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the
future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the
environment is very track dependent.  The models, in general, show
Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does
likewise.  This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi