000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200253
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory.
The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone
is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing
to be about 20 kt from the southwest.  The initial intensity is
being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of
T3.0 from TAFB and SAB.

A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn
northwestward, or 305/5 kt.  For the next 5 days, the ridge
is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to
upper-level trough digs southward.  As a result, Kiko is expected
to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying
between 16N-18N.  Even with that expectation, there is significant
divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period,
with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the
cyclone on a determined westward course.  Because of this
uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from
the previous one.

There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with
most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of
the forecast period.  Because there is so much uncertainty, the new
NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours,
and then flatlines that intensity through day 4.  Weakening is
possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential
increase in shear.  Even though the updated NHC forecast has been
lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and
the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be
required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg