000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky