000
WTPZ43 KNHC 191448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours.
The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized
in bands to the north and east of the low-level center.  The
initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center.

The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and
oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the
dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during
that time period.  Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little
change in strength during the next few days.  The NHC intensity
forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with
the consensus aids.  This forecast is a tad lower than the previous
one.

Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to
its north.  A turn to the northwest is expected later today in
response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest
of Kiko.  A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the
weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the
cyclone.  The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the
steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF
at 120 h being around 500 n mi.  The NHC track forecast remains
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the
consensus aids.  Regardless of the details, it seems likely that
Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the
east Pacific basin for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi