000
WTPZ43 KNHC 190849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Water vapor satellite imagery as well as satellite-derived winds
indicate that there is some southwesterly shear undercutting Kiko
tonight, with a large upper level trough digging several hundred
miles to the northwest of the cyclone. This flow is likely feeding
some dry air into the system, and these factors could explain why
Kiko has not been intensifying recently. The objective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB as well as subjective intensity estimates suggest
that the initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt.

Despite the forecast for shear to be generally relaxed, Kiko will
have to overcome dry and stable air to its north and west that may
keep entraining into the cyclone's circulation in the coming days.
The majority of the intensity guidance only show some slight
strengthening over the next several days. And, due to the mixed
positive and negative signals for intensification, the official
forecast agrees with this scenario and gradually brings Kiko to
hurricane strength in about 36 hours, and intensifies it just a
little more after that time. The official forecast intensity is very
near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

The initial motion is westward at 5 kt. A developing weakness in the
ridge to the northwest of Kiko will allow for a west-northwest to
northwest motion over the next couple of days. Ridging will rebuild
to the northwest of Kiko after that time, which will induce a
west-southwestward motion. Late in the forecast period, that ridge
will weaken, resulting in a turn back to the northwest. The main
change to the official forecast track was to nudge it a little to
the right, as the well performing ECMWF has shifted quite a bit
northward on the latest run. The official forecast now lies on the
southern edge of the clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 15.9N 128.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto