000
WTPZ43 KNHC 190231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6
hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air
appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm,
limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based
on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates.

Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will
eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do
so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and
warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen
at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably
beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity.
The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the
next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if
Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens
at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast
is therefore somewhat low.

The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the
NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level
ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another
day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it
is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The
model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual
track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far
handled the forecast of Kiko quite well.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky