000
WTPZ43 KNHC 182050
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko has apparently continued to strengthen. Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were all 55 kt, so
the intensity is raised to that value. At least slow additional
strengthening is possible during the next few days. Wind shear that
previously affected the cyclone seems to have decreased, and Kiko is
far enough south that it should remain over fairly warm waters for
the next couple of days. The HWRF and HMON models were not
available for this forecast, but previous runs showed the potential
for possibly significant strengthening during the next couple of
days. On the other hand, the statistical guidance is much lower.
Without any new dynamical intensity guidance available, it seems
wise to make no large changes to the intensity forecast this cycle,
but it is slightly higher in the short term to account for the
higher initial intensity. In general, the NHC forecast is a little
above the intensity guidance at all forecast hours.

The initial motion is 250/6 kt, but the tropical storm is still
forecast to turn westward within the next few hours. Kiko is still
expected to snake its way westward during the next 5 days as a
mid-level ridge to the north builds, weakens, and then builds
again. The global models all show this general scenario and vary
mainly in the forward speed of the cyclone. Very little change was
made to the NHC forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky