000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181432
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection
near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted.
The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this
advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running
a little hot recently.

The storm continues to move west-southwest, or 245/05 kt.  A track
resembling on roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups
and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated
during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of
a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty
good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to
the previous NHC forecast.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water
environment for the next few days.  After that time, some dry air
entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the
intensity.  The latest forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this
is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large
changes in the guidance at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake