000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with
only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the
past couple of hours.  There's a pretty big disparity in the
initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data
supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane-
force.  Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an
initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge
extending from the central Pacific.  The forecast continues to
shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated,
and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west-
southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The
new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but
this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully
indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being.

While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it
could take some time before the storm can recover from the
effects of the shear.  Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day
or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a
low-shear environment.  Afterward, there is very little agreement on
the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly
divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a
tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane.  For now since the
track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight
increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at
the end of the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake