000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Kiko continues to gradually lose strength.  Satellite images show
a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of
an eye.  There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the
north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind
shear.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near
the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates.  Kiko
remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds
and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center.

Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to
the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally
warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane
intensity during that time.  The models show Kiko re-strengthening
a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower
shear.  However, weakening should resume by the end of the week
when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids.

Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering
currents.  A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the
central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward
on Tuesday and Wednesday.  After that time, the ridge is expected to
weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later
this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of
the forecast period.  Regardless of the details of the track
forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its
slow trek for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi