000
WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the
cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye
feature.  While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the
cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of
northeasterly shear.  Intensity estimates are lower than this
morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt.  Weakening
is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues.
The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track
keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes.
This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a
few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to
resume at long range.  To account for this scenario, the new
forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and
we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a
more significant increase in winds.

Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid-
level ridge.  The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west-
southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the
central Pacific.  This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west-
northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The
majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting
the south-of-west motion as early as tonight.  Thus the new forecast
is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a
particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake