000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161451
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the
core of Kiko is being disrupted.  While there is a seemingly
favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the
top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall.
Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous
initial wind speed of 90 kt.

The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which
should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could
lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive
for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little
change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an
increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new
NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following
the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A
fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a
complex environment, I'd rather be conservative in changing the
longer-range intensity forecast.

There's no significant track change to report with Kiko.  The
hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the
northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the
west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to
west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period.
The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster
and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the
right place to be with Kiko's track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake