000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that
northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There
is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less
symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100
kt.

Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level
ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the
hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge
is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the
north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general
west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward,
and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to
persist for the next 24 hours or so.  The shear should subside
between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence
from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive
affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough
approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong
southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is
in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows
gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the
intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto