000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the
past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized
shortly after the advisory.  Overall, the hurricane continues to
have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall.  The
initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the
latest TAFB fix.

While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward
at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this
advisory.  The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a
couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path
of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and
slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge
extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly
south-of-west track.  The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the
south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and
corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting
further modifications could be necessary later.

The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water
longer than initially thought.  However, it is still forecast to
move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause
significant upwelling under the central core.  Thus gradual
weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above
the model consensus for the next few days.  The only notable
difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due
to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone
out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake