000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core.
There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending
from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery
confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h
ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and
now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly
uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened
quite that much at this point.

It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko,
and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short
term, the initial position may actually be the main source of
uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next
couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered.
Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or
northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS,
HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally
westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread
grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS
and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast
splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows
the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period.

Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair
amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears
otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance
calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective
structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a
couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely
begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air,
and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is
near HCCA throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky